Here's, a book on accomplishments one year into President Trump's second term.

The headlines are loud.

More than sound.

But what does it all actually mean here at home?

Tonight, we step away from the noise in Washington to focus on lived experience in the Lehigh Valley.

How policies on the economy, health care, immigration and foreign affairs are shaping daily life for our neighbors.

This is a community conversation.

President Trump 2.0.

One year in.

Here's your host, Brittany Sweeney.

Good evening and welcome to this community conversation.

President Trump 2.0.

One year in.

Brought to you by PBS 39 over 91.3 FM and Lehigh Valley News.com.

Tonight, we're taking a step back to reflect on major moments in our nation's political life.

It's been one year since President Donald Trump took office.

In that time, we've seen sweeping policy decisions, a shift in political tone and ongoing debate about the direction of the country.

But what do those national changes mean here in the Lehigh Valley?

Over the next hour, we'll talk with local voices from across our community, people with different experiences, viewpoints, and areas of expertise to explore how the first year of the Trump administration's second term has affected our economy, our institutions, and our day to day lives.

Let's take a moment and look back at what happened over the last year.

One year into his second term, President Donald Trump returned to office promising speed, certainty and the renewed focus on policies that defined his first presidency.

From the start, the administration relied heavily on executive action.

Immigration and border enforcement were early priorities, with new rules tightening asylum access and expanding federal involvement at the southern border.

Supporters say the changes restored order.

Critics argue they created humanitarian and legal challenges.

Debates that continue in courtrooms and communities nationwide, including here in Pennsylvania.

The economy has remained central to the president's agenda.

In his first year, President Trump pushed to extend and expand elements of the 2017 tax cuts, particularly for businesses and middle income earners.

The white House says the goal is growth and stability.

Trade and foreign policy also reflected a familiar approach.

The administration imposed new tariffs and stepped back from several international agreements emphasizing domestic manufacturing and supply chain independence.

At home, the president moved quickly to roll back federal regulations, particularly in energy and environmental policy.

Supporters point to lower energy costs.

Environmental advocates, including some in the Lehigh Valley, warn about long term impacts on air, water and public health.

The first year also reshaped the federal government itself, with judicial appointments and agency leadership changes designed to leave a lasting imprint as President Trump enters year two of his second term.

The nation and communities like ours remain divided.

What's clear is that the decisions made in the first year are already shaping daily life here in the Lehigh Valley and across the country.

The first year of President Trump's second term has shaped our country and our local community.

So here to dive into what that looks like for Muhlenberg College are the director of the Institute of Public Opinion, Chris Borick.

Spanish Professor Erica Southerland, who is also with the immigrant support Group here in the Lehigh Valley Valley called Grupo de A. And Professor of political science Brian Mello, thank you all so much for joining us this evening for this conversation.

All right, Chris, we're going to start with you.

One year into this administration's second term looks a lot different than the first time around.

So what are you hearing and what is public opinion like right now?

That's a great question, Brittany.

When you look at public opinion from last year till this year, there's been a market change in the president's standing nationally, Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley.

The president came into office last year.

His standing was around 51, 52, 53% approval rating, which kind of mirrors what we see local today.

When I looked at the aggregate of polling nationally, his approval ratings around 41%.

Pew, which is a really well respected pollster, came out with their latest poll and had the president's approval rating at 37%.

That's a very significant drop over the last year.

And we've seen that not only in his overall aggregate approval rating, but we see it across policy areas, including some policy areas that were largely considered to be his strengths, things like immigration, which we'll we'll talk about, where he's seen some of his greatest, decline in support.

Chris, I have to ask you, what's the typical change in those numbers?

You know, it doesn't seem going from the 30s to the 40s are back and forth.

Seems like that big of a jump.

But in traditional polling, what typically happens.

Well, historically, we've seen kind of a drop off, the honeymoon period that we say in your first 100 days or so starts to erode a little bit, and by the fall, your numbers are, are down, unless there's a big intervening effect like nine over 11 or something like that.

So, this by standards, in fact, if you look back at the president's first term, he had a similar drop over that the course of that time.

This one seems at least, at this point, even a little bit more, in terms of the loss from where he started to where he is right now, one year in.

Okay.

And what do Americans and specifically Pennsylvanians say about how the country is doing right now?

The country is in a dour mood.

Brittany.

Folks do not like the direction.

And you'll see this even across party lines.

Of course, Democrats, you know, are not very happy with the president's approval, not necessarily pleased with the direction of the country.

But if even if you ask Republicans with a Republican administration, there are significant levels of dissatisfaction, there's a lot.

I always kind of look at the aggregate like a thermometer of how people feel.

This is an a very positive situation in terms of overall American attitudes about the direction of the country.

Okay.

When we look economically at the picture, what are folks worried about right now?

Is it jobs?

Is it trade wars?

Is it prices of of groceries?

What are they most worried about right now?

Immigration.

Yeah, yeah, a little bit of everything.

Brittany.

But the issue, largely the issue that propelled President Trump, back into the white House last year was affordability, cost of living, inflation.

And that's one area where Americans are extremely dissatisfied.

They continue, despite the president's messaging, that that the economy is headed in the right direction and prices are good.

And there are some macro and economic indicators that support some healthy aspects of the economy.

Americans aren't feeling it, and they're not feeling it on issues like affordability.

And over and over they'll say that this is something they expected the president to deliver more.

I'm sure this is what he ran on, right?

It was it was the cornerstone of his campaign.

And in many ways, when you look at those marginal voters that turned to the president last time, sometimes groups that among groups that aren't always, Republican in their preferences, younger voters, voters of color, in some ways, voters, independents.

Right.

That that would be looking at this.

They're the ones if you look in the polls right now who have drifted the most away from the president, it's largely because they hoped and and in many ways expected to see changes in that aspect of life, affordability.

And they haven't seen it.

At the same time, some of those voters voted for the president with some reservations, thinking, I don't like everything about him, but I think this is something he could deliver on in this past year.

Some of those voters, I think, have had their kind of negative expectations about the president's reinforced at the same time, some of the things that they hoped that he would deliver on.

We're not sure there some of our domestic policies that are really important to the American people.

Foreign policy, for the most part, historically polls a little bit lower in importance.

Has that changed over the last year?

We've seen a lot of talk about other countries here in our country.

I'm sure Brian could offer some perspective on this.

Historically, as you said, you know, the issues, the closer to home, the more salient it is.

Unless it's war troops on the ground kind of major unites United States engagement, abroad, the president is often in the second term, do move to foreign affairs.

They try to create legacies, creating engagement.

What's what's challenging, I think, for President Trump, and, and supporters of the president is how it aligns with the his overall views and his statements on where America should be.

America first, not getting entangled in foreign engagement, not getting tied up, in foreign, wars.

And of course, we've over the course of the last year, been engaged, we've been engaged in Venezuela, we've been engaged in military, activity in Iran, in other places, at many places, and I think it raises the questions, right.

Is this is this necessarily what the president had promised and what people expected back to the inflation issue, those types of issues where the president really created a brand?

Is there some deviation from that?

Now, that might be troubling, folks.

The president hasn't lost his base, but some folks that might be on the margins.

Certainly the polls show he's lost.

All right.

And Brian, that's where I would like to bring you in.

A political science professor at Muhlenberg College.

What has been the president's greatest achievement when it comes to foreign policy over the past year?

And where is he falling short in the public's eyes?

Yeah.

So I would say that there probably two, great achievements, but they're both, complicated.

Right.

And so one would be, I think, the success of the 20 point plan, that was, put out to try to end the conflict in Gaza, to release all the hostages and kind of move things forward, getting the U.N.

Security Council sanction on that and kind of moving that forward, certainly counts as a success.

What happens with the Board of Peace that was supposed to continue and Gaza, but is expanding its scope is what complicates that picture.

The second one that gave an initial bump to it was the military operation in Venezuela, which has a little bit of pushback.

But the way in which it was carried out and the successful extradition, military capture of, of Maduro was also sort of a kind of success.

I would think that those are probably the two signature foreign policy successes right now.

Sure.

And what are people seeing as kind of where he's falling short or where this administration is falling short?

I think there's a lot of questions that are raised, by many of the actions, right, of the, government in terms of foreign policy, I think the biggest shortfall is probably tariffs.

That's where it links to the domestic issues.

The most.

Right.

So the sort of back and forth, with tariffs, the on again off again nature of them and their contribution to higher costs, businesses don't really operate on a, a level of uncertainty.

So the realization of bringing manufacturing back won't happen in a, in a rapid time frame.

And, the uncertainty of the tariffs contribute to some of the costs that, that increase.

But I do think there's a lot of folks who are also uncertain about, some of the, foreign policy, alliances that have been jeopardized.

Certainly the sort of level of urgency towards Canada, the movement on green, on Greenland, these things raise a lot of questions for, for people, and on questions about where is America aligning itself in the world?

You bring up tariffs.

Trade can seem a little bit abstract to normal folks who are not looking at the politics every single day.

What is the administration trying to accomplish with these tariffs?

Is it just simply, you know, to offset that that trade deficit or what what are they trying to accomplish here?

I think there's probably two things that go on here.

I think that, at the core of it is a belief that, tariffs can be a kind of, economic policy that will incentivize bringing manufacturing back to the United States and prevent companies from, from outsourcing.

So a reshoring or offshoring of that kind of stuff.

But I also think they function really politically.

So whenever he's got, some kind of an ax to grind or there's, there's something, there's something that's, you know, an agenda that he wants to pursue.

Tariffs become one mechanism by which he's engaging in the kind of transactional foreign policy, trying to get a better deal for himself and historically tariff heavy strategies.

Now, are they do they impact relationships or do they build relationships with trade partners?

Yeah.

This is a great question.

I think, at least over the last several decades, while there have been losers of free trade, it seems to be that, that stability with trade partners requires some notion of international norms and rules that, trade agreements kind of govern.

And I think it's really difficult in the world that we're in to kind of go, individual case by case.

And I think the, the, the risk is that the rest of the world keeps moving forward and trade deals while the United States keeps, now talking about various types of, on again, off again tariffs in different places.

Now bringing it back here to the Lehigh Valley.

Are we feeling those tariffs locally.

What's it look like in manufacturing and different jobs in the in the region that we are living in now.

Yeah.

So I mean I'm sure that we're feeling I can't I don't study the we have the economy in depth.

So I can tell you that Pennsylvania has clearly got to feel it right from the importing of, of, of cocoa, for our big indust there's an level of uncertainty and a level of increase in the cost of goods that would be brought in as part of manufacturing processes.

So for Pennsylvania, we we're actually a far more trade dependent state than we thought than, than people might think for, for various reasons.

And so I think this does, hurt the Pennsylvania economy a little bit, the uncertainty around it.

Sure.

We move from foreign policy to immigration.

Such a hot I mean, they're all hot button issues at this point, right?

But immigration has been a hot button since the very start and just continues to be a hot button issue.

And so, Erica Southerland, that's where I bring you into here.

Tell us a little bit about Grupo de Pueblo.

It was founded in 1999 by a group of, Hispanic immigrants, most of whom come from highly educated backgrounds, but either didn't speak English or didn't have, weren't here as documented immigrants.

And they said, well, there's really nothing here for us to do.

We need to come up with something to create a support because we're not, we're not the people who came running across the border where people who came in normally with a visa on an airplane and then overstayed.

And here in the Lehigh Valley, statistically, that is the biggest number of people who are out of status or who have been out of status.

They didn't come running across the border despite what all the TV clips have.

And out of that common set of concerns we've spread out now, we'd handle any, any immigrant who comes to us, mostly Spanish speaking.

We do work in Spanish, but we, offer assistance with the legal services.

We don't provide legal services, but we work with some local immigration attorneys.

So you're working day in and day out with the folks who are in the immigrant community here in the Lehigh Valley.

Oftentimes when we hear about immigration, we think and hear about the border.

How does that relate back to the Lehigh Valley?

Does it look the same here in the eastern part of the state?

Well, I would maybe point to Minneapolis, and say that we've got many, many, many immigrants who are either in the process of getting political asylum or refugee status.

And we have many, many people who have come in through family ties or work ties, or through some, some combination of that.

And they're working on getting regularized.

I actually wanted to go back to the word that Brian was using earlier, and that's uncertainty.

I think that's the most toxic presence right now in any discussion about immigration, because people just don't know.

And people who are perfectly legal, who are who have a work permit, who have a social Security number as they go through the political asylum process, for example, that was that was completely quite clear.

And now these are people who are being picked up at court appearances that they're showing up to the way they're supposed to.

Actually, just this morning, I was working as an interpreter for a family, who had requested, a court appearance by video because they were so afraid of going to Lehigh County Court, to that building, because I has been there to pick up people.

And these are people who, a year ago were perfectly legal.

And it's just tragic to see that sense of, well, I've done everything right, but now I'm on the wrong side of the law.

The uncertainty is really pretty devastating.

It it leads people to not send their kids to school.

It leads people to not go to church on Sunday.

It leads people to not go out to do their shopping.

A lot of the local businesses, and as we know, in Allentown, there's a very strong immigrant business community.

And I was on seventh Street.

I was actually able to park on seventh Street and this lot on a snowy day to be able to park, the people are just not coming out because there's so much fear.

It's palpable, and it comes out and, you know, a lot of negative ways we're seeing these clips played out on local media sites, on social media.

How does that compare to what's happening here locally?

Well, we haven't had any of the massive raids.

We haven't had the massive presence of ice.

And I think that's a good thing.

That I think that, keeping things calm is certainly one of our top priorities.

We used to have regular meetings in person.

With the pandemic, we took a break from that, and now there's just no way I can ethically have a meeting.

And, people, I just can't gather people, for a meeting because, again, some of our members are undocumented.

Many of our members are undocumented or somewhere in that, ambiguous status.

And then we do have some naturalized citizens.

But I can't ethically gather people together.

How is that playing out?

Again, I'm very grateful.

The mayor of Allentown, and that the police chief in Allentown, they're being very firm in their support for immigrant communities.

Allentown is always, really for as long as I've been in the Valley, which is 30 years now, been super supportive of the immigrant community offering, like on national flag days to have different communities raise their flag at City Hall.

And there's been a real sense of support.

And historically, when people, for example, are a victim of a crime, feel comfortable calling the police, I fear that that's not happening anymore, that at this point, there's so much nervousness about anything that involves, contact in any kind of, legal services, be it as a witness, as a victim, or of course, as a perpetrator, which of course, statistically are much smaller numbers in the immigrant community than the non immigrant community.

But people see the immigrant community as a vulnerable target.

And so we know people are getting, take advantage of throughout all of this.

These are really scary times.

I can't tell you how many phone calls I get on a weekly basis.

Just saying, well, what can we do?

What am I supposed to do?

And all I have to say is, just keep your head down.

Keep your head down.

Chris, I want to bring you into this highly polarized topic, immigration.

When it comes to Pennsylvanians who are looking at this issue, are they hardening or are they softening their approach on this, in their opinion, on immigration?

You know, it's as you would think, it's complex, a little bit nuanced, depending on how we're framing the questions, what we're looking at.

So the question of let's let's look at the border.

Right.

This is the one area, I think a year into the president's term that he still gets really high marks, Renee.

We'll will see that his he's above water on that and using in polling.

We've seen a major, major decline.

I've talked with Tom.

Sure.

Tell some of our discussions on on radio about this over the last ten months, the drop off in support for the president's use of ice, the use of, of immigration services domestically has really collapsed in a lot of ways.

And, of course, what's happened in recent weeks in Minnesota has contributed to that.

Americans are not satisfied with the way we're conducting the policies.

A lot of the things that kind of broach what, Erica was talking, are not really well received at this point.

So, again, this was an issue that he leveraged in many ways to become president for a second time.

Brian, when we look at foreign policy and how our allies or the rest of the world views us when it comes to immigration and what's happening in this country, what's kind of the sentiment right now?

Well, when it comes to immigration, I think that there's a lot of red flags and sort of warning lights.

You see it around the World Cup.

There's lots of concern about, foreign tourists coming to the World Cup and what that will look like.

So concern and anger, and so there's quite a bit of anger around that.

Even with the Olympics, there was a plan of using some ice to provide security for Olympics.

The Italians did not take too kindly to that, that plan.

So I think that, that this is implicated with, perceptions of the, of the United States.

I do think that internationally, though, what the Prime Minister of Canada said at Davos that the, the, the era, the postwar era is over.

I think that's the bigger thing.

I think the rest of the world is looking at, the, the collapse of the international system that we knew and are looking for.

What's next, our allies responding differently to the United States, I think not only our allies responding differently, but, you know, it's, quite, stark when Canada is planning for the potential of a US invasion.

And these things seem fanciful, fanciful a little bit, and I don't I'm not one of the people who's committed to the idea that it's totally gone.

I think that we are, a difficult, partner right now because we we fly back and forth.

Right.

So from Trump one to Biden to Trump to our foreign policy shifted back and forth, and that makes it difficult for other countries around the world to know what to expect.

Particularly in a post-Trump world, where will where will the United States land?

And, so that's I think that's part of that sort of uncertainty in the perceptions of, of the US within the global community right now.

Yeah.

Chris, what should our viewers and the folks here in the Lehigh Valley be looking at as we move towards the next year of the Trump presidency?

A lot has happened.

It feels like four years worth of of topics and things have happened in just one year.

What should folks, it's a it was a monumental year.

It's a historic year.

We'll be talking about it for, for quite some time and living through it.

Political scientists talk a lot about the next cycle.

We're in another cycle.

We're in a midterm cycle.

Midterm cycles historically are pretty challenging for the president's party.

They're even more so when the president's numbers are not good.

And those conditions are there right now.

And that's going to put a lot of challenge for Republicans coming up this year to defend seats.

Eastern Pennsylvania.

Yeah, we're used to here in the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania, being in the spotlight politically during presidential years.

Right.

The world comes here.

You are going to be back at the epicenter of American politics this time around.

The districts like the seventh here, the eighth up in northeastern Pennsylvania, the first in Bucks County, the 10th down in Harrisburg, all within 70 miles or so from here are some of the most contested challenging races in the country, all held by Republicans.

Control of Congress.

When we think about where that's going to come through, it's going to come right here through the Lehigh Valley and eastern Pennsylvania.

All right.

Something to watch.

Chris.

Erica, Brian, thank you so much for your input and insight into what is happening across the country.

And right here in the Lehigh Valley right now.

Thank you.

As a new administration moved into the white House, as Chris just said, changes came to the Lehigh Valley political scene as well.

U.S.

Representative Ryan Mackenzie took the oath of office a year ago after winning Pennsylvania's seventh congressional district, one of the nation's most contested political battlegrounds.

We invited Congressman Mackenzie to join this live conversation.

He was unable to make it.

However, he did appear on our weekly podcast, Political Pulse.

Here's an excerpt of what he had to say about what's happened over the past year.

Congressman, Republicans control the House, the Senate and the white House, but the past year was still marked by gridlock in the longest ever federal shutdown.

You've recently called Washington broken.

Why has Congress had such a hard time getting things done?

Yeah, it's a challenge because the sides are so divided right now.

I mean, we see the polarization in in lots of different areas of government, but there is still a requirement as long as we maintain the filibuster in the US Senate and a requirement for 60 votes there, there is still a requirement to come together to compromise, to find bipartisan paths forward.

And so that's something that I've worked on during the time that I've been in office.

Every piece of legislation that I've introduced, we've sought out a Democrat co-sponsor, and in most cases we've actually been able to find them.

So it's one of these things where, you know, I think there is a lot of bipartisan work that does happen.

That isn't the newsworthy thing.

That doesn't end up getting picked up when government actually functions and does things well.

It's always the divisiveness that gets picked up.

And so what we've seen, though, in the appropriations process, that's a good example, where in a bipartisan way, we've passed for the first time in a number of years, 12 pieces of legislation, that compromise the overall budget.

We've passed six of those with strong bipartisan support, and they've actually been signed into law.

The other six are now over in the Senate.

Most of them had strong bipartisan support as well.

And so that appropriations process actually, in many respects, is working well.

You're having votes where last week, over 300 members were voting for some of those, appropriations bills.

And so you do have to find those areas where you can work together.

But in many instances, it's very difficult as well.

Why has it been that this time around has been different, considering all the other issues that we've seen with spending in the budget for many years now, far beyond your far before your term, what, like what's different this time around?

It's allowing that to happen.

Yeah, it's a great question.

I mean, I think there are a number of different things that I would point to that are driving it.

There is certainly, the gerrymandering that has gone on around the country for many years.

Both sides, whoever is in power takes that leverage.

And utilizes it.

We see many states now, where routinely 30 to 40% of the voters are actually for the minority party.

They're being given no voice, no representation in their state delegations.

That's a problem, because, what you see is then as members go on to Congress, they are beholden to the fringes of their parties.

They're very strongly, you know, recognizing that the way that they got there was to be the hardest, you know, left or right when their primary, get into office.

And that's how they're going to stay there.

So that that means that there are less members that want to collaborate and work together.

And then the return of Donald Trump, can't be ignored as well.

And we've seen so many Democrats who their only position is resist.

They don't want to compromise anything that is relating to the Trump White House or the administration.

They want nothing to do with.

And it's probably because of what I talked about in that gerrymandering, because if they go back home and they show that they're working with the Trump administration, they're voters, in a, in a hard left district are not going to appreciate that, and they're going to have problems back home.

So, that is another changing dynamic where anything that is tied to the administration, the initial knee jerk reaction from a lot of people on the left is just to resist.

Didn't we see the exact same thing from the right during the Biden administration, for example, the border security, the, president President Biden did support having a border plan.

There was, bipartisan talks, an agreement attend, agreement was reached.

Donald Trump, then out of office, stepped forward and said, this can't pass.

Joe Biden can't have a win.

And I'm not.

And those aren't his exact words.

But we can't give President Biden a win, was the message.

Sure.

Let me, I'll disagree on one part, and I'll I'll agree with you on another part.

But so I'll disagree.

That bipartisan border proposal was not a serious proposal in the sense that it had a component where 2500 individuals could cross the border every single day illegally, before they would actually shut off the border.

That's not a reasonable approach.

I mean, that is irresponsible.

We have seen that without policy, the Trump administration has shut off illegal immigrants coming across that border.

That was done very quickly.

And with the backup of Congress providing funding, to make sure that we can maintain that from the long term.

So for Democrats to say that you needed that legislation to close the border, I think that was a false, narrative that they were putting out there wasn't actually accurate, as we have now seen, play out.

Where I would agree with you, though, is there are, Republicans, just like I gave the example of gerrymandering, there are certainly Republicans who are in deep red districts, who anything that is proposed by the other side, their knee jerk reaction is to be opposed to that as well.

And we saw that, with health care when I stepped out and said that I was in favor of extending the ACA tax credits with reforms, income caps and anti-fraud provisions, there were many in our party who just said, because it has the name Obamacare associated with it, they wanted nothing to do with it.

And I don't think that's an appropriate approach either.

We need to make sure that we're doing the best thing for our citizens.

Our constituents are feeling high prices.

In that instance, I felt like we could have found a kind of compromise.

It's over in the Senate.

They may still find, that middle ground, but, that is an example on our side where, again, the knee jerk reaction was just to to dismiss whatever the other side had proposed.

I want to circle back to that discussion in a little bit.

But first I wanted to focus on one of the key components of your campaign in 2024, which was strengthening the economy.

But so far, we've seen the results have been mixed.

Unemployment is higher than it was a year ago.

Consumer confidence has been trending in the wrong direction, and the cost of food has climbed faster than inflation.

Has Congress and the Trump administration done enough to bully the economy?

Well, I think it's an ongoing effort.

And as you said, it's mixed.

There are also obviously things that are very favorable, the cost of gasoline coming down, which is a contributing cost factor for everything.

In the overall economy, we have seen that new industries are taking off, new technology is taking off.

The stock market is at record highs all the time.

So there are different things.

And in areas where you can point to that, we still need to address and also the things that are going well.

And so, I think that this is a long term, challenge that we have to do to turn around the economy.

We saw for four years, that Biden nomics and the inflation that was going on with massive overspending in the federal government was very detrimental to a lot of people.

I don't think many people would would disagree with that.

And so trying to change those policies unwind a lot of the things, and then put in place new policies to move forward is a long term proposal.

One of the big things that we're going to see happen at the beginning of this year is the big change that we made, with reconciliation, I changed significant changes to the tax code, for small businesses to make investments, for individuals to have more money in their pockets.

Every single American will see tax relief.

And that includes, the increased standard deduction, more money for seniors, to deduct for their Social Security, increased tax breaks for to tipped workers and overtime workers, an expanded child tax credit.

All of that, has been passed, but it hasn't been realized yet because the first tax season is about to be upon us after the change in that law.

So the point is that I think we are making progress in some areas.

There's obviously more that needs to be done, and you're going to start seeing and feeling a lot of those effects coming in the next couple of months.

A lot of the issues you just touched on are part of the One Big Beautiful Bill act.

And you've touched on a lot of it, but why were you comfortable supporting that bill, when a lot of your critics, including people who are campaigning against you, have attacked it for cutting snap benefits, Medicaid?

A lot of the social support network for many poor Americans.

Sure.

So I simply disagree with them on that point.

I mean, the two things that you highlighted were changes, to Medicaid and Snap commonsense reforms in the Medicaid space.

The biggest change we made was implementing a work requirement for able bodied adults.

That program, Medicaid, was traditionally for individuals who were disabled, pregnant women, low income children and others who could not be in the workforce.

But because of the changes, you know, Bob and Karen, the Affordable Care Act, it expanded Medicaid to include lots of people just purely based on income, not their ability to work.

And in every other major human service program, whether it's Snap or tariff or elsewhere, there is a work requirement for able bodied adults.

And so we went and we put that in place.

That is something that over 70% of Americans support.

That is a common sense reform.

So I simply disagree with those individuals, that say the changes we made were detrimental.

I think they are common sense and in line with what the American people want when it comes to Snap.

We have a program in Snap, that is very critically important for many low income individuals across the country who need food assistance.

That is not something that we're trying to change.

The nature of the program is is something that needs to be addressed, though.

And what we did was reform a program that is 100% funded by the federal government but administered by the state governments.

And so that brings about a natural disconnect.

If you are the state government and you receive 100% federal funding and you have no skin in the game, there is no impetus for you to make sure that you're actually paying people appropriately through that program.

And in the most egregious case, we saw in Alaska, 25% of Snap benefits were paid incorrectly to individuals.

I mean, just ludicrous, kind of of payment, right there.

And in Pennsylvania, the numbers have been more in line, around 16%.

Error rates, 10%, I think, was the most recent one.

What we said in that piece of legislation was you have to bring your error rate down to 6% or less, and there will be no changes to the Snap benefits that you receive from the federal government.

But we do want states to administer a program properly.

An error rates happen in three ways.

I think it's important to note.

One is that you're paying somebody who should not be eligible for the program at all.

The second is that you're overpaying somebody.

So paying benefits that they are not actually entitled to, because you're getting, a higher payment amount.

And third is that you're underpaying somebody, which is also a problem.

We don't want those errors to occur.

And but there has been no impetus or incentive for states to actually correct that problem.

Now, the one big beautiful bill steps in and says States, you will receive the same funding if you administer a program properly.

Many states and Pennsylvania before the pandemic had an error rate below 6%, but many states have an error rate below 6%.

It's not an unreasonable request, and we made sure that otherwise, if you run that program properly, you won't be impacted by the change.

I think that's a reasonable change.

Again, that most people could get behind.

The One Big Beautiful Bill act also allocated billions of dollars to ramp up border security and immigration enforcement.

Two key issues during your campaign.

But do you support the way that agents have been conducting themselves in the field, and the way that the Trump administration has been utilizing them?

We've seen American citizens being shot dead in Minneapolis, in this past month, and many Republicans are calling for investigations into how this into how these forces are being utilized.

Yeah.

So that's a two part question.

And let me give you, a long answer, but I think it's warranted in a serious situation like this.

So first of all, the individuals that were killed in Minneapolis, very much a tragic situation for, them and their families, obviously.

And so our thoughts are with both Rene good and Alex Peretti, who were killed in those instances.

What we have to do is we do have to look back at where we were.

The Biden administration had allowed almost 10 million people to cross the border illegally.

And that's well documented fact at this point, an outlandish situation where they just simply did not want to secure the border.

I went down and did a border tour.

We saw I think, from the question we had earlier, we were talking about, that there was a desire to do that.

They couldn't get the funding to do it in Congress that that that is not accurate.

And so let me say this, the the example I was going to give is that I went to the border.

We have to remember also Nancy Pelosi fought Donald Trump in the first administration for $4 billion, of border security funding, shut down the government.

At that point, it was the longest shutdown in government history over border funding.

Democrats did not want to fund the border.

And during the Biden administration, which came after that first Trump administration, I went down to the border and saw actual, wall pieces of wall that could have secured, our southern border.

The Trump administration had purchased the the actual equipment to build the wall.

The construction vehicles were sitting there.

And border agents who were in that site said the day that, Joe Biden took office, all construction stopped.

So funding had already been appropriated, and the Biden administration was choosing not to actually go forward and secure that wall.

And there was a wide open stretch of southern border.

And the photographic evidence, we were there talking to border agents ourselves.

We saw that that was their policy.

So we saw all of that influx of illegal immigration during the Biden administration, obviously, thousands of illegal immigrant criminals in our local communities.

And what we have now seen as a correction by the Trump administration to actually secure the border.

Again, it didn't take legislation.

It was many, in many instances, policy changes than we did back it up with additional funding, which was necessary, I think, to secure that border for the long term.

And now we are seeing interior enforcement.

And that is something that needs to occur when these 10 million, immigrants, illegal immigrants came into our communities, what we were told by border security, even back then during the Biden administration, they said, these individuals don't stay in border communities.

They go to all of your communities across the rest of the country.

And, they are accurate and correct in that statement.

And so, what we have seen now from the Trump administration is thousands of illegal immigrant criminals, people that, again, 80% of people probably say should be removed from our streets.

They have been arrested.

They have been detained in many cases, they are being deported.

What we saw in Minneapolis, was that we had local elected officials that did not want to work with our our Ice agents.

They did not want to cooperate a very hostile situation ensued, and ultimately ended it up, resulting in some tragic deaths.

We also saw some instances, where I think we do need reforms.

And so, you pointed to us citizens being, detained or arrested.

That should not be occurring.

We saw agents going into people's houses without warrants.

That should obviously not be happening as well.

And we saw pictures just regularly, routinely where individuals, Ice agents, were on the streets in street clothes, no identification.

And you say, you know, that should not be occurring as well.

I think these individuals need to be properly identified, but they shouldn't be engaged in the typical policing.

And if you had support from local law enforcement to do some of the crowd control and, and other things, I think you would have had more, seamless operations to arrest again, criminals that are in our local communities.

And without that local cooperation.

I think you do see problems.

We have it right here in our local communities where, Lamont McClure in Northampton County does not want to fully cooperate with Ice.

And so you have individuals who are trend arugula members, domestic abusers, being released onto the street.

And while he says he cooperates with Ice and notifies them, ice themselves say that is not accurate, they say they get notice about when it's going to happen that day, but they have to take significant resources off the street to stake out the courthouse and wait all day long for that person to be released, that that is not the proper way to handle it.

If he would fully cooperate with Ice, they would be going into the facility during that detention window, sure.

And properly handing somebody over in a secure location.

And what we see that in Lehigh County is just as egregious, where you have local elected officials saying, abolish Ice, and they're kicking out Homeland Security investigations, which has nothing to do with immigration enforcement.

What they do is long term transnational gangs, cross state line human trafficking and sex trafficking.

They've gotten great results of getting these criminals off the streets in our local communities.

And you can find the entire interview with Congressman Ryan McKenzie on the latest Political Pulse episode, located on Lehigh Valley News.com.

Well, political reporter Tom Shortall is among our next panel of guests.

In addition to Tom joining us now to talk about how life here in the Lehigh Valley has directly been impacted by national politics.

Our Raymond Santiago, the executive director at the Hispanic Center, Lehigh Valley, and Jeff Sharon, one of the tax principles at Clifton Larson Allen LLP.

Thank you all so much for joining us.

Tom.

We just heard a section of your interview that almost went an hour long with the congressman.

And what were the big takeaways when you had that conversation, which is which is available now on Lehigh Valley News.com.

So for my job, it's a lot of it is covering the congressional race, and it's a midterm election.

And so what I'm hearing from the congressman in that interview is that he is, trying to establish his political brand where he has been a loyal supporter of President Trump, of speaker Mike Johnson, while at the same time trying to show, some a little bit of bipartisan chops.

I don't think that he's conducting himself in the same way that, say, Charlie Dent, former congressman who's had a pretty well known bipartisan streak.

Has there has been moments where he's, kind of picked when to break from the president.

And when he has done that, he hasn't tried to make a big effort to do that, but he is not making a show of it.

But he has been doing them.

For example, he signed a, a discharge petition to try to force a vote to protect the ACA tax credits.

Sure.

As those, advanced through the House, partly because he was willing to take that step, which most of his Republican colleagues were not willing to do.

But he did.

And allowed the vote.

They have not advanced through the Senate.

As a result, people, receiving ACA benefits have seen their rates double in 2026.

There's a possibility those could go back.

Those could go back down.

But we haven't seen that advance yet.

Covering politics locally over this past year.

How have you seen what's happening on a national level.

Impact the Lehigh Valley directly?

We are a microcosm of the country.

We are a microcosm of Pennsylvania.

And Pennsylvania is a great microcosm of the country as a whole.

And so President Trump, has kind of very proudly run and acted as a disrupter.

Our last, panelists were talking about the changes at the international scene.

We've revisited a lot of those changes that we saw from the first Trump administration, where people tend to either very strongly support the president or have very visceral disapproval of the president.

And we've seen not that it ever really went away, but we've seen that return in full force.

There were national protests, the No Kings protests, some of the largest in American history.

We saw that here.

Ryan McKenzie has had weekly protests outside of his office.

That used to be the Tuesdays with Toomey, the local, U.S.

senator.

They've become Mondays with McKenzie.

And there's dozens, sometimes 100 or so people protesting outside of his office.

And so we've kind of seen that return to that hyper partizan, attitude, even the local community.

And I think it's going to speak to the midterm election that we are approaching this year.

Thank you so much, Tom.

I'm I'm going to bring Jeff here into the conversation.

Thanks so much for joining us.

From a tax perspective, yes.

Okay.

So how have things affected individuals and businesses over the past year?

There's been some changes when it comes to our our taxes and tax law.

That's correct.

So 2025 was for some individuals maybe a transformative year.

But there was a lot of uncertainty in the beginning of 2025.

If you recall, the One Big Beautiful Bill act passed around July 4th of 2025.

So it was very difficult to plan for the first half of the year, not knowing what was going to happen in the future.

But from an individual perspective, there has been, state and local tax increase from $10,000 per married couple, up to $40,000.

That will be phased out, going forward, in a few years.

There's also some, I guess the one thing that really was on the news was no tax on tips, no tax on over time, the auto loan interest deduction, was mentioned previously as well.

We have the $6,000 additional deduction for senior citizens.

And then from a business point of view, especially in the Lehigh Valley with manufacturing, bonus depreciation was a big part of the one big beautiful bill.

Others also increased section 179 expensing.

That would help, small businesses take a larger write off for, equipment that is purchased.

And then, for larger businesses, there were changes to interest deduction calculations that would, basically free up a larger deduction for businesses that would reduce income tax on the bottom line.

So are folks locally seeing more benefits or more complexities.

So I think there'll be a lot of complexity just for the fact that change always, you know, well-intended does make things a little bit more complicated.

But from a refund point of view, the tax season just started a few weeks ago.

But the one thing to keep in mind, Brittany, is from an individual point of view, although the One Big Beautiful Bill act was passed, the IRS didn't really update the tax withholding tables for W-2 employees.

So in the next couple months, I do anticipate that, you know, the average American, you know, filing an income tax return will have, a little bit large of a, refund than they normally would have.

And then in terms of the Lehigh Valley, just because we have such a prevalence of manufacturers in the area, I know a lot of, the manufacturers in the area, definitely are looking for a lot of benefit from that point of view.

And, along with that, there is a research and development, change with the one big, beautiful bill that, previous, in about three years ago, you had to start advertising research and development costs.

That were done domestically over five years.

The one big, beautiful bill that basically permits a one time catch up for businesses that there'll be a large deduction on the bottom line for those businesses that are eligible.

Okay.

So there's some pros and cons here.

You mentioned the no tax on tips.

We see you know we hear that that sounds like a good idea.

Is that trickling down.

Is it is it good for the folks who who rely on tips.

So that's in in practice.

In practice it depends on the individual filing situation.

For some taxpayers will definitely benefit from that, especially perhaps, blue collar worker.

That is that's their primary, source of income.

The one thing that doesn't really mentioned in the news bites in the media is a lot of these provisions to phase out, you know, at certain levels.

So if you do have a joint income or somebody else with, some sort of other income in your family filing situation, the benefit might not be as what it seems.

All right.

And what financial pressures?

I know the tax season just started, but what financial pressures are popping up in an individual tax plans as as you know, homeowners and folks around the country prepare their taxes or I mean, it was just a few months ago that we were talking about the price of eggs on a weekly basis.

I know in the Lehigh Valley, I, I did look this up, I guess, but before today, there is a 3.9% cost of living increase year over year from, December 24th to December 25th.

So there are some pressures there.

We are seeing some sort of costs, starting to decrease.

I know when I'm going to fill my, gas pump up, you know, you know, there are some definite benefits, in certain industries.

But, going back to what was said before as well, tariffs are really affecting Americans, even if it's not in the day to day news, if it might be in the day to day news on a national country basis, it's still affects, the common US taxpayer right here at home.

Okay.

Positively and negatively.

I hate to keep saying it depends, but manufacturers, from that point of view, there are some manufacturers that are specialized.

So the specialized manufacturers, that have a product that consumers need might be able to pass those tariffs on to the ultimate consumer that creates higher costs for them, individuals or businesses buying those products.

But at the same point, the manufacturers also have higher input costs because they might be buying materials to make their product from another country that is subject to a tariff.

And from a business point of view, that's also the uncertainty of what was talked about.

You know, week to week, month to month.

You know, certain countries have a certain percentage of tariff and then a month or two later it might be a different percentage depending on national policy.

So much to unpack here with every topic.

And so, Ray, I want to bring you into the conversation when it comes to social services, because the Hispanic Center offers some social services.

How has a place like the Hispanic Center Lehigh Valley been impacted over the past year by some of the changes with this administration?

Yeah.

So thank you for having me on for for Hispanic Center, Lehigh Valley and all of our participants that come to the our different programs, whether it's a senior center, food pantry, there's just been a lot of confusion, and I think we've heard that kind of throughout the evening.

Today is just the uncertainty around what's going on with Snap benefits, work requirements, and then the education around those, how they will be administered.

Followed up on.

I think that's a lot of the questions that we get.

And then ultimately from a business level, how we were impacted by, you know, federal freezing, funds, USDA, cutting some funding, that impacted our food pantry.

We we lost some funding, that was trickling down from the federal government, which made us had to reduce our role.

Two roles, actually, one full time role.

And then, take someone from full time to part time, in order to kind of make ends meet within the nonprofit agency.

And then ultimately the government shutdown.

And what happened around Snap and just how long it lasted, really impacted people.

That first ten days of November, we saw a 67% increase in the number of calls versus the first ten days of October.

And it was very overwhelming.

You know, I worry about my staff and other nonprofit staff with the burnout, because this year does feel like four years.

So that's something that's just really top of mind for, for us at Hispanic.

So are there any long term policies that are positive or negative for the center right now?

Yeah.

You know, for us, as we look forward, I kind of want to bring it back to the Lehigh Valley.

I think, you know, what came out of that government shutdown to different, you know, agencies and partners here in the Valley coming together to fundraise for a second Harvest Food bank, the partnership with Lehigh Valley Community Foundation, United Way of the Greater Lehigh Valley, those those relationships that blossomed, from that kind of negativity and that experience of the shutdown are going to last and continue and kind of help build that foundation for not only our food pantry, but the other pantries throughout the Lehigh Valley.

Sure.

And, Tom, as he says, some of the things about, you know, brings up Snap benefits and Medicaid.

Let's talk a little bit about that health care debate.

They can feel abstract right there in Washington.

But but it trickles down here at home.

And so what are the numbers look like locally.

How many people are at risk to losing some of these some of these benefits with the changes with requirements for work in the Medicaid sector and Snap benefits or even ending the ACA subsidies?

Sure.

So there's a lot to unpack there.

There's not everything is happening at once.

A lot of this is being phased in over time.

I was able to dig up, estimates from the Congressional budget Office.

And the a lot of the policymakers are making decisions based off of figures that they receive from, from that.

And so for our congressional district, PA seven, so that's Northampton County, Lehigh County, Carbon County, sliver of Monroe, there were approximately seven that the estimate is that there's 17,500 or so individuals who are going to lose Medicaid benefits over the next decade or so.

Now, that is an estimate.

And it includes people who may not be on it now, but might possibly qualify in the future, but now won't.

But that's so that's yes, it for for Medicaid in terms of Snap the same time frame there over 6000 individuals, would not be eligible for Snap benefits.

As for the ACA, I've seen estimates of approximately 8800 people who would be losing.

Who would lose?

It would no longer qualify for some of the ACA packages.

In terms of because of these tax credits, those people would be, seeing their rates double.

Essentially, unless the Senate is able to find some sort of compromise deal here.

And that hasn't emerged yet.

I don't think that talks are completely dead at this point.

But given the way Congress has struggled to move things through at times, people are, naturally pessimistic.

The, the, one thing I want to add to that Jeff was talking about before in terms of, of tax benefits and whatnot, one thing that was, is not a change, but it did include, those Trump, child care tax benefits.

Those were continued because of that.

And so there isn't a change there.

But the Congress at the time was concerned that that if they didn't pass, that affordability would become significantly worse, because those would have gone away.

But in this environment, people don't necessarily care about that because it means the hole is getting deeper.

So I would say to that too, right?

You know, you know, there is the continuing resolutions expiring very shortly.

Right?

You know, there could be another government shutdown.

We don't know.

Yeah.

I know that just in looking at the news, I was on the phone with, with some government workers today.

But there is the possibility, right, that, you know, there could be a one month extension, there could be a full budget pass, which is very unlikely.

And, you know, it's just going to be curious to see what happens over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Absolutely.

Right.

I did want to ask you, as we're talking about some of these, benefits, you're working with the people who use these benefits, who who need these benefits to survive and live.

What are you hearing from the the folks that you serve?

Yeah.

I think it's the fear.

Continuing with the uncertainty theme, I think for many people that utilize Snap, that they have Medicaid or whatever other benefit it may be, there's a lot of issues with delays.

So we think about even the shutdown, delaying like the on track program.

Right.

Or like cheap or something like that.

And now, you know, people having, you know, getting behind on their bills and not being able to pay them.

That causes a lot of strain for the family, a lot of pressure that they're feeling.

And, you know, a lot of families right now are truly struggling.

We talk about affordability.

I don't want it to become just another, like, buzzword.

But it's just it's true.

It's what's happening out there.

Grocery prices haven't went down.

Gas may be down, and that's great.

But ultimately, these are families who are barely making ends meet.

A year ago, two years ago.

Are definitely not making ends meet now.

Right.

Thank you so much for your your insights as well as Tom and Jeff.

Thank you so much for this really valuable information, gentlemen, and thank you for joining the conversation.

As we heard tonight, the first year of the Trump administration has meant different things to different people, often shaped by where we live, the work we do, and the issues that matter most to us.

What's clear is that national policy doesn't stop in Washington.

Its impact is felt throughout our communities, our workplaces, and our homes right here in the Lehigh Valley.

Thank you to our guests for sharing their perspectives, and to you for joining us for this community conversation.

We appreciate you joining.

Thank you so much.